COVID-19 has taken a toll on third quarter 2020 global hiring intentions, with employers in 35 of the 43 countries surveyed by ManpowerGroup expected to reduce payrolls in the period, while payroll gains are expected in the U.S. despite falling job openings and stubbornly high unemployment.
The latest ManpowerGroup global report finds the strongest hiring pace is anticipated in Japan, India, the United States, China and Taiwan, while employers in Singapore, Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru, and South Africa forecast the weakest labor markets.
Just 17% of U.S. businesses surveyed expect to grow payrolls during the third quarter of 2020, while 11% anticipate a decrease and 62% expect no change—the weakest U.S. hiring intentions in 9 years.
Globally, 54% of employers, and 60% of U.S. employers expect their hiring to return to pre-COVID levels by April 2021, but 12% of global employers and 7% of U.S. employers don’t expect their hiring to ever return to pre-COVID levels and around one-quarter of employers are not sure when it will happen.
Separately, the Department of Labor has reported U.S. job openings have dropped 28% since February and there are now over four unemployed Americans for every job opening. Over 29 million Americans are collecting unemployment benefits.
Outlook: Layoffs are slowing and hiring is gradually rising, suggesting a steady rebound has started in the U.S. job market, but the job “hole” is deep and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently used the words “uncertain” or “uncertainty” seven times to describe the outlook for economy.