The unemployment rate remained at an historically low 3.6% in June, but the labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio both fell in the more volatile household survey.
The private sector has finally recovered all of the jobs lost during the pandemic, but, reflecting a massive shift in the economy, eight of the sixteen major industries have still not recovered.
- Most notable among the industries that have not recovered are mining and logging (-8.9%), arts, entertainment and recreation (-8.3%), accommodation and food services (-7.7%), and other services (-4.4%).
Labor force growth has stagnated since February, with the labor force participation rate, still well below its pre-pandemic level, having fallen since March.
Telework decreases again in June: In June, 7.1% of employed persons teleworked because of the pandemic, down from 7.4% in May and 10.0% in March.
- Information (20.0%), Finance and insurance (19.7%), Professional and technical services (17.6%) and Utilities (12.0%) had the highest percentages of teleworkers.
Six industries accounted for two-thirds of the June gains:
- Professional and business services (+74,000);
- Health care (+56,700);
- Accommodation and food services (+55,600);
- Transportation and warehousing (+35,500);
- Manufacturing (+29,000); and
- Information (+25,000).
Outlook: The economy is expected to slow as the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to address inflation. The U.S. could be headed for period of stagflation (relatively high inflation and low economic growth) for the rest of 2022.